It's probably time to inject a little fact into this discussion. Visit this
website [http://www.melbpc.org.au/pcupdate/2106/2106article14.htm] for a
more in-depth treatment of CD-R life. There's another point discussed that
is probably more important than whether your CD-R (or CDR-W, DVD-R, or
whatever) will be readable in 40 years. What do you intend to read it with?
If my memory serves, it was the Library of Congress that archived
photographs on media that can no longer be read because the original
equipment is worn out, and replacements haven't been available for decades.
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