[filmscanners] Re: Nikon scanner availability

["Mike Kersenbrock" <michaelk@photo-3d.com>]

Arthur Entlich wrote:
> When was the last time you saw a 8mm movie film to video transfer system
> sold retail?  I imagine there are some commercial outfits still offering
> video transfer services, but even those are probably disappearing.
>
How popular were 8mm movies as compared to still photos  (to compare their
market sizes)?  I have no idea, not having been a film-movie person
(started with a
VHS + video camera about 20~25 years ago or so).  How many still film
photos exist to
be converted as compared to 8mm films to be converted ?

> What I am getting at is this: Film will become specialty product,
> available by special order or through a few minimal manufacturers.
> Non-commerical dedicated film scanners will disappear, as flatbeds take
> over that market niche.  Even the flatbed market long full of brands and
> models has reduced to a handful.
>
I wonder how many mfgrs there ever has been (as opposed to marketing
companies OEMing
product).   But I think you're right.

> Will the prices on these last dedicated film scanners suddenly
> skyrocket?  Not likely.  Did 8mm film cameras skyrocket when video came
> out?  Has the cost of 35mm camera bodies skyrocketed as the digital
> camera market took over?
>
I think we're still in the film->digital conversion stage.  There still
are film cameras
for sale new, and there still is a lot of film being sold even if it's a
less massive number
than previously.  So conversion needs should remain significant for a
while longer, but
it'll eventually end the way you say, for sure.

> What probably will happen, is several commercial labs will offer
> reasonably priced scanning services, since they will need to maintain
> scanners so when people bring in old film based images for printing,
> they can make prints.
>
If prints "survive" the digital trend.  Prints (even if digitially
printed) seem so *analog*.  :-)
Maybe "programmable electronic paper" will make the printing companies
go bye bye as well.

> The days of demand crunches causing price increases on basically
> obsolete products is over.  It almost never occurs anymore, because
> people recognize the next generation or product is usually cheaper and
> offers more options.  If you honestly believe, for instance, CRT
> monitors are going to become pricey as they stop manufacture, I've got
> some to sell you ;-)
>
They will eventually become spendy, but not any time soon.  Only when
the units being
made are only very small niche specialized ones made in small volumes
(where current
cheapie ones aren't applicable).  There are very very spendy high-end
CRT based monitors
available for purchase now.

> The only way I could see something like a dedicated film scanner
> becoming more valuable is because it became a collector's item, sort of
> like a DeLorean car, Maybe someday people will be dragging old XT
> computers and film scanners to the "Antique RoadShow", but it may be a
> while yet ;-)
>
Kinda, but XT's are a bit different.  My current multi-Ghz computer I'm
writing on can run
the very same application binaries that DOS XT could (theoretically
anyway).  The film scanner
as such won't be replaced by a super-set, it'll just be a product who's
need has gone away.
Perhaps subtle, but not quite the same.  If new ones become unavailable,
used prices may
go up (depending upon supply/demand dynamics) because there will be a
long lasting need
for them (for procrastinators) even after need has dropped too low for
sustaining a business
selling new scanners.  Unless the flatbeds get so good that they really
are obsolete in which
case they'll just be $5 items at goodwill (that don't sell).

Mike K.




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